Broker Confidence Report Shows Positive Current Sentiments to Start 2025 for Commercial Sector but Six Month Outlook Declines

Residential brokers continue to have less favorable views of market conditions than commercial brokers

New York, NY – The Real Estate Board of New York (REBNY), the City’s leading real estate trade association, today released its Real Estate Broker Confidence Index report for H1 2025. Continuing the trend that emerged in H2 2024, commercial brokers were more optimistic than residential brokers. Both shared a wider range of concerns – tariffs, immigration policy and economic uncertainty – than was the case in the last several reports.

REBNY’s biannual Real Estate Broker Confidence Index report is New York City’s only broker confidence report -- it surveys residential and commercial brokerage members to measure their confidence in the real estate market across the five boroughs.

Looking at the numbers, the Commercial Current Confidence Index (CCI), which had been negative between Q2 2022 to Q3 2024, was recorded at 25, essentially unchanged from 26 in the prior report and the strongest results in three years The six-month outlook tracked in the Commercial Expectations Index (EI) declined from 57.8 to 38—still one of the higher results in years. Respondents pointed to concerns about persistently high borrowing costs and uncertainty around federal policy.

The Residential CCI of 0.5 indicates an even split between brokers with a negative or positive view of current conditions, slightly up from H2 2024. Residential EI for conditions in the next six months dropped for the first time since 2023, coming in at -3.1 in H1 2025. While residential brokers are very pleased with the leasing market, they highlighted familiar challenges like impediments to stronger sales, including stubbornly high mortgage rates and limited inventory, as well as the enactment of New York City’s FARE Act that is expected to drive up rents and make it more challenging to navigate the rental market. Similar to their commercial counterparts, residential brokers underscored that volatility in federal policies and related economic uncertainty are causing some would be buyers to sit on the sidelines.

Of note, these surveys were conducted before the primary elections for New York City Mayor and City Council, or the passage of the federal government’s budget reconciliation bill.

“Despite increased economic uncertainty, commercial and residential brokers note that the impact on commercial and residential sales has so far been limited, and leasing activity has been sustained.”” noted REBNY Vice President of Market Data and Policy Keith DeCoster. “Nevertheless, the decline in the six-month outlook, particularly among residential brokers, underscores their trepidation about what changes lie ahead in the second half of the year.

The full report and other research from REBNY can be found here.

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ABOUT THE REAL ESTATE BOARD OF NEW YORK

The Real Estate Board of New York (REBNY) is the City’s leading real estate trade association. Founded in 1896, REBNY represents commercial, residential, and institutional property owners, builders, managers, investors, brokers, and salespeople; banks, financial service companies, utilities, attorneys, architects, and contractors; corporations, co-partnerships, and individuals professionally interested in New York City real estate. REBNY conducts research on various civic matters including tax policy, city planning and zoning, rental conditions, land use policy, building codes, and other city, state, and federal legislation. REBNY regularly publishes market data, policy reports, and broker surveys. In addition, REBNY provides for its members: informational, technical, and technological resources; networking and charitable service opportunities; qualifying and continuing education courses; professional education programs, seminars, and designations; career-changing awards; legal advice; and a wide range of additional member benefits. For more information, please visit www.rebny.com.

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