NEW YORK, NY – The Real Estate Board of New York (REBNY), the City’s leading real estate trade association, today released its Real Estate Broker Confidence Index report for Q3 2022. While confidence on current market conditions continued to decline, the six-month outlook for both commercial and residential brokers improved in the Q3 2022 report.
REBNY’s Quarterly Real Estate Broker Confidence Index is the City’s only broker confidence report and surveys residential and commercial brokerage members to measure their confidence in the real estate market across the five boroughs. In line with findings over the last three quarters, macroeconomic factors like rising interest rates, inflation and volatile equity markets pushed broker sentiments regarding current conditions lower in Q3 2022. In this most recent report, brokers also expressed concerns on the slowing pace of residential sales.
“Following a trend from the first half of the year, our members have expressed lower confidence in current market conditions and delays in client transaction decisions due to economic uncertainty,” said REBNY Director of Market Data Keith DeCoster. “Many of the brokers were slightly more optimistic about the six-month outlook. These respondents view interest rate hikes as necessary medicine that will cause short-term disruption but will set the stage for a return to the long-term growth the City has previously enjoyed.”
After falling into negative territory last quarter for the first time since 2020, the Residential Current Confidence Index dipped further from -1.74 to -17.41 in Q3 2022. Interest rates were cited as the top concern for nearly 50% of residential brokers.The 30-year fixed home mortgage rose to 6.3% in early September, its highest mark since the fall of 2008,and pushed above 7% by early October. In a shift from last quarter’s report, residential leasing agents also highlighted some signs of market cooling. Demand for apartments remains robust, and rents still exceed pre-pandemic marks, but a few brokers surveyed suggested that rental demand has peaked, setting the stage for more material deceleration in rental rate growth. Brokers continue to cite a lack of 421a replacement and ongoing impacts from the 2019 HTSPA Act as an impediment to much-needed multi-family development.
Commercial broker respondents were also pessimistic on the current state of the market, with the Commercial Current Confidence Index (CCI) seeing a decline from -37.72 to -40.58 in Q3 2022. Businesses and consumers have received little relief from elevated costs during the third quarter, contributing to both index findings. Inflation spiked by 9.0% in June, the largest year-on-year increase since the late 1970s, and still exceeded 8% in September. For commercial brokers, the low CCI findings are still above the all-time low of -64.32 in Q2 2020.
Looking forward, brokers’ six-month outlook improved from the previous quarter. The Commercial Expectations Index (EXI) rose from -34.87 to -22.83, and the Residential EXI inched up from -10.07 to -5.46.
When it comes to forward-looking concerns, brokers highlighted:
Resolving quality-of-life issues (crime, sanitation, and transit)
Sustained return to the office
Local government and incentives that support businesses, including zoning code clarity
More clarity on licensing and permitting oversight as city agencies undergo change
Avoiding additional fees and taxes at a time when operating costs are spiking
Download the complete Q3 2022 Quarterly Real Estate Broker Confidence Index here.
For more information about REBNY research reports, visit www.rebny.com/research-and-reports.
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ABOUT THE REAL ESTATE BOARD OF NEW YORK
The Real Estate Board of New York (REBNY) is the City’s leading real estate trade association. Founded in 1896, REBNY represents commercial, residential, and institutional property owners, builders, managers, investors, brokers, and salespeople; banks, financial service companies, utilities, attorneys, architects, and contractors; corporations, co-partnerships, and individuals professionally interested in New York City real estate. REBNY conducts research on various civic matters including tax policy, city planning and zoning, rental conditions, land use policy, building codes, and other city, state, and federal legislation. REBNY regularly publishes market data, policy reports, and broker surveys. In addition, REBNY provides for its members: informational, technical, and technological resources; networking and charitable service opportunities; qualifying and continuing education courses; professional education programs, seminars, and designations; career-changing awards; legal advice; and a wide range of additional member benefits. For more information, please visit www.rebny.com.