REBNY Research: Real Estate Broker Confidence Index Q4 2020

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EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

The Real Estate Board of New York (REBNY) surveys its residential and commercial brokerage members quarterly, measuring their present and six-month forecasted confidence in New York City’s real estate market.

Brokers reflect on their professional dealings and report their outlook on an index of 0 to 10. The Commercial Broker Confidence Index covers all forms of commercial real estate, including but not limited to office, retail and industrial space. The Residential Broker Confidence Index reflects both the residential sales and rental markets.

REBNY issues and collects the survey responses in the last three weeks of each quarter.

The most recent survey results reveal overall real estate broker confidence is 4.35, a 41% increase from last quarter’s all-time low , but still a 37% drop year-over-year. After three consecutive quarters of declining broker confidence, both overall residential and commercial real estate broker confidence witnessed an increase from the prior quarter. Overall commercial broker confidence was 2.89 out of 10, an 34% increase since the third quarter of 2020 but a 60% decline since the fourth quarter of 2019. Whereas overall residential broker confidence was 5.81 out of 10, a 45% increase since the third quarter of 2020 but a 10% decline from fourth quarter of 2019. Comments about the market from brokers reveal that they believe the market has bottomed out and are cautiously optimistic about a rebound, likely due to the rollout and distribution of the COVID-19 vaccine.

REAL ESTATE BROKER CONFIDENCE INDEX

In the fourth quarter of 2020, the present situation real estate broker confidence was 3.39 out of 10, a 36% increase since brokers were last surveyed in the third quarter of 2020, but still a 51% decline since the same time last year.

The survey results similarly indicated a decline in market sentiment six months from now, with an index at 5.07, a 44% increase from the third quarter of 2020, but a 26% decline since the same time last year.