REBNY 4th Quarter 2017 Broker Confidence Index Report

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The Real Estate Board of New York’s (REBNY) Real Estate Broker Confidence Index for the fourth quarter of 2017 was 6.99 out of 10, a significant increase of 0.99 since brokers were surveyed about the third quarter of 2017. Stronger confidence in residential rentals and commercial financing drove this increase.

REBNY regularly surveys its residential and commercial brokerage division members to measure their confidence in the New York City real estate market now and six months from now. Survey results are published quarterly with a maximum index of 10.

The Commercial Broker Confidence Index (which focuses only on the Commercial Brokerage Division responses) in the fourth quarter of 2017 was 7.41, a large increase of 1.14 since brokers were surveyed about the third quarter of 2017. The responses to each survey question improved compared to the Third Quarter of 2017.

Responses to the question asking brokers’ assessment of the current sales financing market were indexed 8.00, an improvement of 1.24 since the third quarter of 2017, and responses to the question asking about commissions six months from now were indexed at 7.25, a bump of 1.03 since the third quarter of 2017.

One broker mused about their busy workload, “everyone seems to be waiting for something ‘bad to happen,’” while another expected the upturn to last last writing “sellers are adjusting price expectations and jolting buyers off the sidelines.” The commercial real estate broker confidence is shifting in a positive direction reflected by the indexed results and the comments shown below.

Our Residential Broker Confidence Index (which focuses only on the Residential Brokerage Division responses) was 6.57, an increase of 0.83 since brokers were surveyed about the third quarter of 2017. Responses to the questions about rentals were more positive than in the third quarter of 2017, while responses to the questions about financing were less positive.

Uneasiness over the federal tax reform was the issue most often mentioned this quarter in the question asking about issues in the market. Responses to questions asking about the current and future financing markets were indexed at 8.76 and 7.86, a decrease of 0.42 and 0.94, respectively, compared to the third quarter of 2017. It was the first decrease recorded for either of those questions since the third quarter of 2016. In contrast, Residential Brokers’ assessment of the rental market markedly improved. Responses to the question of the current rental market were indexed at 3.78, a jump of 1.54, and responses to the question of the rental market six months from now were indexed at 5.54, a jump of 2.86.

Read the column by REBNY President John H. Banks

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