REBNY 2nd Quarter 2017 Broker Confidence Index Report

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Executive Summary

The Real Estate Board of New York’s (REBNY) Real Estate Broker Confidence Index for the second quarter of 2017 was 5.89, a 0.02 increase from the first quarter of 2017.  Improved confidence in the current financing market and the financing market six months from now spurred this increase.

REBNY regularly surveys its residential and commercial brokerage division members to measure their confidence in the New York City real estate market now and six months from now. Survey results are published quarterly.

The Real Estate Broker Future Confidence Index, which measures broker confidence in the market six months from now, pivoted downwards to 5.56, a decrease of 0.14 since the first quarter of 2017. Brokers’ outlook on future commercial leasing, future residential rental market activity, and future residential commissions was more reserved this quarter compared to  last quarter.

The Commercial Broker Confidence Index was 5.84, an increase of 0.56 since the first quarter of 2017. The Commercial Broker Future Index increased 0.35 quarter-over-quarter to 5.28.

Commercial brokers responded more positively to survey questions about the overall market, current and future financing, and current leasing conditions. Responses to the question on current commercial financing indexed much higher this quarter at 7.42, an increase of 2.09 from last quarter.

In contrast, commercial brokers responded more negatively when asked about their outlook on the future leasing market. Respondents’ expectations of the leasing market six months from now were indexed at 3.78, down 1.01 since the first quarter of 2017. Commercial brokers expressed some unease in the future leasing market, commenting on the slower pace of leasing contracts.

The Residential Broker Confidence Index was 5.94, down 0.52 since the first quarter of 2017. The Residential Broker Future Index decreased 0.61 quarter-over-quarter to 5.85. Residential brokers’ confidence in future commissions dropped from an index of 6.90 to 5.92, causing the overall index to fall.

Residential brokers’ confidence assessment of the current and future rental market was low, but their assessments did not significantly decrease in the second quarter of 2017. Responses to the question about the current rental market were indexed at 3.07, an increase of 0.14 quarter-over-quarter. Responses to the question about the future rental market were indexed at 3.31, a decrease of 0.51.

Although brokers have commented that demand among buyers and renters has softened, their assessment of the current and future financing landscape is very positive; their responses to survey questions about financing were indexed at nearly 8.0 and 8.74 accordingly.

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