REBNY 2nd Quarter 2019 Broker Confidence Index Report

The Real Estate Board of New York’s (REBNY) Real Estate Broker Confidence Index in the second quarter of 2019 was 6.64 out of 10 - a decrease of 0.28 since brokers were last surveyed about the previous quarter. Both residential and commercial broker confidence indices experienced a slight decrease in the second quarter of 2019 when compared to the previous quarter.

REBNY regularly surveys its residential and commercial brokerage division members to measure their confidence in the New York City real estate market now and six months from now. Survey results are published quarterly with a maximum index of 10.

The Commercial Broker Confidence Index (which focuses only on the Commercial Brokerage Division responses) in the second quarter of 2019 was 7.06 - a decrease of 0.18 since brokers were surveyed about the previous quarter. The Commercial Broker Confidence Index increased 0.63 year-over-year. Overall, commercial brokers’ responses were very similar to the first quarter of 2019 and showed a consistent increase year-over-year. The primary concerns expressed by commercial brokers this quarter included commercial rent control, new rent regulations, state and local taxes, and the lack of retail activity.

The Commercial Broker Future Confidence Index was indexed at 6.44 - a decrease of 0.25 from the previous quarter - indicating a sense of doubt in the near future of the commercial market. Overall, confidence in the current commercial real estate market remained stable to the confidence level of the previous quarter, with the exception of the decline in confidence of the market six months from now.

The Residential Broker Confidence Index (which focuses only on the Residential Brokerage Division responses) in the second quarter of 2019 was 6.21 - a decrease of 0.38 since brokers were surveyed about the previous quarter. The Residential Broker Confidence Index increased by 1.58 year-over-year.

The Residential Broker Future Confidence Index was indexed at 5.67 - a 0.89 decrease from the previous quarter – indicating a sense of doubt in the near future of the residential market. New rent regulations passed this quarter are the prime reasons for a decline in future confidence. Additionally, residential brokers also expressed concerns about mansion and transfer taxes, the large supply of new development inventory, the lack of perceived affordable housing for sale, and the overall current political climate. Brokers are also seeing a lack of urgency from buyers and an expectation of higher negotiation rates and price cuts, leaving buyers cautious to hurry into deals.

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