REBNY 1st Quarter 2017 Broker Confidence Index Report

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Executive Summary

The Real Estate Board of New York’s (REBNY) Real Estate Broker Confidence Index for the first quarter of 2017 was 5.87, a 0.13 decrease from the fourth quarter of 2016.  Concern about of the residential rental and office leasing markets led the Real Estate Broker Confidence Index to decline.

REBNY regularly surveys its residential and commercial brokerage division members to measure their confidence in the real estate market now and six months from now. Survey results are published quarterly.

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The Real Estate Broker Future Confidence Index, which measures broker confidence in the market six months from now, pivoted downwards to 5.7, a decrease of 0.27 since the fourth quarter of 2016. The financing market six months from now continued to be a concern among commercial brokers, whose responses to the future financing question, number four, were indexed at 3.78.

Meanwhile, concern for the residential rental market six months from now grew among residential brokers, whose responses to the future rental market question, number six, were indexed at 3.82, a decrease of 0.73 from the fourth quarter of 2016. Conversely, high broker confidence in future commissions and the outlook on the residential lending market buoyed the Real Estate Future Confidence Index

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The Commercial Broker Confidence Index was 5.28, a decrease of 0.57 since the fourth quarter of 2016. Although confidence in commissions and overall market fundamentals remained high, concerns about the market six months from now have weighed down the Commercial Broker Confidence Index. The Commercial Broker Future Confidence Index decreased 0.46 quarter-over-quarter to 4.93.

Commercial brokers’ concerns about the future leasing and financing landscape were demonstrated by their responses, which averaged less than six out of the 10-point scale for all but one of the seven survey questions. Some office leasing brokers voiced that there is may be too much new inventory. 

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The Residential Broker Confidence Index was 6.46, up 0.32 since the fourth quarter of 2016. This was the first recorded increase in the Residential Broker Confidence Index since the first quarter of 2016. The Residential Broker Future Confidence Index decreased 0.08 to 6.46 in the first quarter of 2017.

Residential brokers shared that they were most concerned with the current and future rental market in this quarter’s survey. Nevertheless, residential broker confidence in commissions, financing, and the residential market remained high. 

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