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REBNY Confidence Index: NYC Real Estate Brokers Report Significant Uptick in Confidence in First Quarter 2013
April 23, 2013
-- Quarterly survey of brokers reveals outlook is optimistic about economic recovery –
NEW YORK, April 23, 2013 – New York City real estate brokers reported a significant uptick in confidence in the current real estate market in the first quarter of 2013, as well as a positive outlook for the next six months, compared to the fourth quarter of 2012, according to the Real Estate Board of New York’s (REBNY’s) Real Estate Broker Confidence Index released today.
Demonstrating increasing faith in the economic recovery, the quarterly index recorded a one-point increase in the Overall Present Situation Index since last quarter to 8.87. This jump was due largely to the resolution of the fiscal cliff issue with the passage of the American Taxpayer Relief Act. The legislative action alleviated much of the anxiety and uncertainty that the broker index conveyed at the end of last year.
“Our broker confidence index, the result of a quarterly survey of residential and commercial brokers, emphasizes positive assessments of the current market and the outlook for the future,” said Steven Spinola, REBNY President. “We saw a noticeable dip in confidence levels at the end of 2012 as New York City was put to the test by Hurricane Sandy, and as national issues such as the fiscal cliff negatively impacted brokers’ views on the market. That hesitancy has clearly subsided in the first quarter of 2013. Broker confidence has substantially improved this quarter and brokers remain optimistic in the pace of economic recovery.”
The Residential Real Estate Market Overall Confidence Index in the first quarter of 2013 was 9.02, a noteworthy increase from last quarter’s index of 8.57. The increase can best be attributed to the uptick in new developments emerging throughout New York City, which reflect improving economic conditions. Another source of confidence has been the improved outlook for financing. Positive responses boosted the index for this question to 8.07 this quarter, over a one-point increase compared to 6.39 in the fourth quarter of 2012.
“In recent months, a chief concern among residential brokers has been the low supply of inventory,” said Michael Slattery, REBNY Senior Vice President for Research. “With more and more new developments underway, inventory is expected to rise, boosting our residential brokers’ overall confidence in the current housing market, as well as the market six months from now.”
The Commercial Real Estate Market Overall Confidence Index was 8.79 in the first quarter of 2013, up from 7.67 last quarter. Commercial brokers remain optimistic that the economy is improving, many identifying tech and media firms as the main forces pushing the market in a positive direction, as well as a continued strength in the sub-markets. Although commercial brokers remained confident that the market will improve, some brokers noted that lenders were still skittish about making acquisition loans, and question the effect it will have on buyers. Despite these concerns, however, broker confidence remains high.
REBNY’s Broker Confidence Index is a collection of data from anonymous online surveys given to REBNY’s residential and commercial brokerage division members. Survey data is tabulated on a scale of zero to ten, with five being neutral.
A full copy of the REBNY Broker Confidence Index can be found at www.REBNY.com.
About The Real Estate Board of New York
The Real Estate Board of New York is the city’s leading real estate trade association with more than 13,000 members. REBNY represents major commercial and residential property owners and builders, brokers and managers, banks, financial service companies, utilities, attorneys, architects, contractors and other individuals and institutions professionally interested in the city’s real estate. REBNY is involved in crucial municipal matters including tax policy, city planning and zoning, rental conditions, land use policy, building codes and legislation. In addition, REBNY publishes reports providing indicators of market prices for both the residential and commercial sectors. Please visit us online at www.REBNY.com