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REBNY Brokers Weigh In: More Confident In Market Today Than Six Months From Now
July 30, 2013
Quarterly survey reveals slight uptick in confidence due to favorable financing conditions, but for residential market, concern over low inventory, rising interest rates
NEW YORK, July 30, 2013 – A survey of its brokers for the second quarter of 2013 revealed a slight uptick in confidence for the commercial market and a slight decline amid some uncertainty looming in the residential sector, according to the Real Estate Broker Confidence Index, released today by The Real Estate Board of New York.
The Overall Present Situation Index (commercial and residential) rose from 8.87 in the first quarter of 2013 to 9.05 in the second quarter, largely due to the uptick in confidence in current financing in the commercial sector, while the residential division saw a decline to 8.71 this quarter, down from 9.02.
The Commercial Real Estate Market Present Situation Index checked in at 9.28, up from 8.85 the previous quarter. Brokers reported that they’re seeing a healthy retail market and brisk activity. Over the next six months, brokers expect prices to rise, as well as interest rates, which could slow the current pace of sales and leasing six months from now.
Compared to the previous quarter, confidence in the residential sector has slipped slightly, attributed to the low inventory and the emergence of bidding wars among potential buyers. Higher prices and weary clients potentially dropping out of the market are a cause for concern, according to the brokers.
“We’ve been hearing a lot about the direction interest rates are headed after an extended period of historic lows and how an increase in rates, coupled with low inventory levels, will impact the residential market,” said Steven Spinola, REBNY president. “Though many analysts predict that the rise in interest rates will not impede the recovery in the housing market, our brokers are expressing a note of caution regarding the market six months from now.”
“While commercial brokers are positive about the current market, there is some uncertainty about the market in the next few months,” added Michael Slattery, REBNY’s senior vice president for research. “Changing interest rates and a new Chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank, yet to be named, are tempering the confidence of the commercial brokers in the market six months from now.”
REBNY’s Broker Confidence Index is a collection of data from anonymous online surveys given to REBNY’s residential and commercial brokerage division members. Survey data is tabulated on a scale of zero to ten, with five being neutral.
A full copy of the REBNY Broker Confidence Index can be found at www.REBNY.com.
About The Real Estate Board of New York
The Real Estate Board of New York is the city’s leading real estate trade association with more than 13,000 members. REBNY represents major commercial and residential property owners and builders, brokers and managers, banks, financial service companies, utilities, attorneys, architects, contractors and other individuals and institutions professionally interested in the city’s real estate. REBNY is involved in crucial municipal matters including tax policy, city planning and zoning, rental conditions, land use policy, building codes and legislation. In addition, REBNY publishes reports providing indicators of market prices for both the residential and commercial sectors. Please visit us online at www.REBNY.com
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