Confidence Rises Among Residential and Commercial Brokers in 4Q 2017, REBNY Rolls Out 1Q 2018 Survey

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In a real estate market as fluid and complex as New York City’s, there is a simple way to get a good grasp of its current contours and future outlook: directly ask the brokers who know it best.

That is why the Real Estate Board of New York regularly surveys members of its Residential and Commercial Brokerage Division to measure their confidence in the market both right now and six months into the future. The results of our most recent survey for the fourth quarter of 2017 point to a thriving industry.

REBNY measures confidence on a scale of one to 10 with 10 being the most confident. For the last three months of 2017, the Real Estate Broker Confidence Index registered at 6.99. This was a significant increase from the third quarter of 2017, where the index was 6.0. Over the past six months, the index has increased by 1.1.

Residential brokers responded very positively about the rental market, citing more supply. One residential rental broker told REBNY that because there is “so much selection to choose from, people are shopping around more for the best deal,” a phenomena that creates a “renter’s market.”

Some residential brokers shared that they were confident the new federal tax legislation would spare New York’s residential market, writing “the panic over the tax situation will subside.” Others were less placated over the legislation, with one telling us, “the $10,000 cap on the State and Local Tax Deductibility is terrible for Manhattan and the Tri-State area.”

All in all, this led to a 0.83 increase to the Residential Broker Confidence Index, which now sits at 6.57.

On the commercial side, too, there was improved confidence. The index increased by 1.14 since the third quarter of 2017, reaching 7.41, driven in large part by broad economic growth and the fact that more people live and work in New York City than ever before. One commercial broker told REBNY that an increase in infrastructure funding by the government would be a “game changer” for the industry.

Overall, the New York City real estate market is doing well. Each index increased from the third quarter to fourth quarter of 2017 and each index increased year-over-year, even after a few ups and downs throughout 2017. Moreover, future outlook is also solid with the Real Estate Broker Future Confidence Index increasing by 1.39 to 6.97 quarter-over-quarter.

These results reflect insights from our wide range of Commercial and Residential Broker members. We are now in the midst of gathering responses for our Broker Confidence Index Survey for the first quarter of 2018.  I encourage all REBNY Brokers to participate. Responses are due by April 26th, so please take a few moments and tell us how you feel the market is doing.

The index does more than just keep REBNY informed – it is an important public service, as it helps peer brokers, elected officials, and curious New Yorkers to stay abreast of the current and future real estate market.

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